Encouraged by Turkey and by the lessons of the 2021 elections and government-formation attempts, the Sunni parties decided last month to form the National Political Council. This was an attempt to replicate the Shia Coordination Framework model to unite Sunni parties on key issues. The Council’s members included Taqadum, Azm, Siyada, Hasm, and al-Jamahir al-Wataniya, which together made up the vast majority of Sunni seats in Parliament. After several meetings over the past few weeks, the first test for this new council was agreeing on a single candidate for the position of Speaker.
Fragmentation has been a consistent trend in Iraqi politics since 2006. But Sunni parties have been more acutely affected by the lack of consensus and cohesion than the Shia and Kurdish ones. The Speaker position has been hotly contested since 2018, and given the power Muhammad al-Halbusi accumulated during his terms, it is now seen as even more critical to win the post.
The Federal Supreme Court ratified the election results and deemed December 29 as the final day by which the new Parliament had to hold its first session. Chair of the Supreme Judicial Council Faiq Zaidan made pointed remarks that the first session must conclude with the election of a new Speaker. Pressure was building on the National Political Council to reach a consensus.
The Council meeting held earlier today was meant to be decisive, but in fact highlighted that major divisions remained. The Council agreed to nominate Haibat al-Halbusi from Taqadum as Speaker. This was announced in a press conference, with Azm leader Muthanna al-Samarrai noticeably absent. Shortly after, Azm held a separate press conference where they announced their intention to nominate their leader, Samarrai, as Speaker.
To most political observers, the split was no surprise. That the majority of the Council parties were able to agree on a candidate can be seen as a success. Taqadum and its affiliates hold more than half of the Sunni seats in Parliament, and they would have the decisive say on the matter. The issue was whether Muhammad al-Halbusi would allow a rival from within Taqadum to emerge by becoming Speaker or if he could negotiate more ministries for Taqadum in exchange for giving up the Speakership.
Muhammad Tamim, the Planning Minister and a senior Taqadum member, was the preferred candidate by most parties, but Halbusi would not risk such a high-profile figure emerging ahead of him. The other Council parties could not agree on an alternative candidate, though Azm had always insisted Samarrai was their choice. Azm would not give up their ministries for the post, and in the end, Taqadum could not agree on an exchange.
Halbusi decided that if the Speakership would remain with Taqadum, he needed somebody who would remain a subordinate and not rival him. This led him to choose a tribal relative, Haibat al-Halbusi, the former chair of the Oil and Gas committee in Parliament, as his nominee for Speaker. The clip above from the Council press conference today, with Muhammad telling Haibat essentially not to speak, shows exactly the relationship between the two.
The Council, with the exception of Azm, agreed on the choice, and it will go to a vote tomorrow with at least 2 Sunni candidates. Taqadum expects the Coordination Framework to respect the Council’s choice and vote for its nominee, given that most Sunni parties agree on a candidate, and this is the principle the Framework is keen to preserve. Azm expects the Framework to vote for their nominee, given that it is a long-standing ally and backed the Framework during the 2021-2022 government formation stalemate. The Framework may decide to allow its MPs a free vote to avoid choosing sides.
It is rumoured that both Haibat al-Halbusi and Muthanna al-Samarrai face pending judicial investigations into corruption and arrest warrants. It would be impossible for Taqadum or Azm to nominate either if they did not have some reassurance from Zaidan that the judiciary would not suddenly intervene. It remains to be seen whether either of them would become Speaker and serve a full term.
The National Political Council failed its first test, and tomorrow’s vote could be a fatal blow to its future coherence. Some compromise, brokered by the Framework, could still emerge, even as the vote takes place, and this is the strongest possibility. Despite the split in Sunni politics, it doesn’t feel that serious. This might be because the divisions within the Kurdish and Shia parties over choosing the President and Prime Minister are even more protracted than those over the Speaker.
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